Women diagnosed with early breast cancer are 66% less likely to die from the disease than they were 20 years ago, and most can expect to become “long-term survivors”, according to the largest study of its kind.
Research from the University of Oxford found that the risk of dying within five years of diagnosis was 14.4% for women diagnosed between 1993 and 1999.
That dropped to 4.9 percent for women diagnosed between 2010 and 2015, according to findings published in the BMJ.
For some women, the risk of dying within five years is as low as 0.2%, according to a major study.
The proportion of women who survive the disease has improved significantly since the 1990s, experts have found.
Cancer Research UK, which funded the study, said the figures were “heartwarming” and would come as reassuring news to women with breast cancer.
Researchers led by academics from the University of Oxford tracked the survival rates of half a million women diagnosed with breast cancer in England between 1993 and 2015.
The authors looked primarily at cases where the breast cancer had not spread outside the breast.
They then followed the cases to assess the risk of death five years after diagnosis – when the risk of death from breast cancer was found to be highest.
“The prognosis for women diagnosed with early invasive breast cancer has improved significantly since the 1990s,” the authors wrote.
“Most people can expect to survive cancer for a long time.”
Dr Carolyn Taylor, Professor of Oncology at Oxford Population Health and lead author of the report, said: “Our study is good news for the vast majority of women diagnosed with early breast cancer today because their prognosis has improved so much.
“Their risk of dying from breast cancer in the first five years after diagnosis is now 5%.
“It can also be used to assess risk for individual women in the clinic. Our study shows that prognosis after diagnosis of early breast cancer varies widely, but patients and clinicians can use these results to predict an accurate prognosis going forward.
“In the future, further research may be able to further reduce breast cancer mortality in women diagnosed with early breast cancer.”
Some of the potential drivers for improving survival rates could include new treatments, improved radiation therapy, better breast detection and screening, and studies that have revealed different characteristics of breast cancer, experts said.
Cancer Research UK said it was the first study of its scale with extended follow-up to track not only which women died from their disease, but to chart the characteristics of the patients and their cancer.
The charity said this meant doctors would be able to use it to provide an accurate prognosis for women.
The paper states that among 15,533 women aged 50 to 70 with “screen-detected cancer that was HER2 negative, estrogen receptor positive, intermediate grade, 1-20 mm in size, and node negative,” the average risk of death for for five years it was only 0.5%.
And the estimated five-year risk of breast cancer mortality for a 60-year-old woman diagnosed with a “screen-detected tumor, (less than) 20 mm (in size), low-grade, estrogen receptor-positive, HER2-negative, and node ” will be only 0.2%.
The researchers analyzed various characteristics of the disease and found that for 63% of the women, the risk of death within five years was lower than 3%. But for 4.6% of women, the risk was 20% or higher.
Chief Executive of Cancer Research UK, Michelle Mitchell, said: “The heartwarming news is that women today have more time with their families and loved ones after an early diagnosis of breast cancer.
“Receiving a cancer diagnosis is an extremely worrying time, but this study could give patients a more accurate prognosis and offer reassurance to many women.”
“Through the power of science, research, clinical trials and screening, tremendous improvements have been made in the diagnosis and treatment of cancer over the past 20 years. However, the UK lags behind other countries when it comes to cancer survival.
“UK governments must show political leadership on cancer by taking action to help diagnose and treat cancer earlier and ensure the NHS has enough staff and equipment to meet the growing demands of the future .”