Offers of rebates for households to use less electricity at peak times will return this winter as part of plans to minimize the risk of blackouts.
National Grid ESO said it expected to have enough capacity to meet demand, but added that it would be “sensible” to keep the energy saving scheme.
The grid operator said the war in Ukraine had placed “risks and uncertainty” on gas supplies to Europe and the UK.
It says the “tight days” for the UK’s energy grid are most likely to be in January.
“There will be a cold winter and so we expect to use our normal operational tools,” a National Grid ESO spokesman said.
The so-called demand flexibility service was launched last November after Russia’s gas supplies to Europe were disrupted following its invasion of Ukraine.
In a report for the colder months, National Grid said it would have an average margin – which is the difference between electricity supply and demand – of 4.8 gigawatts. He said this was “slightly higher than last winter” and “broadly in line with those of recent winters”.
However, his “baseline scenario” assumes normal energy market conditions with no supply disruptions.
National Grid said it was taking steps to “minimize the potential impact on electricity customers” across the UK if supplies are interrupted again.
As well as maintaining its energy-saving scheme for households to receive discounts on bills, the company said it was in discussions to put two coal-fired power plants on standby. The amount available for the network, if needed, has fallen from five in 2022 to two, with two already closed and one other unusable.
The UK is heavily dependent on gas for electricity generation, with gas-fired power stations generating more than 40% of the country’s electricity.
The UK also imports electricity from mainland Europe.
Utility bills
The shrinking supply sent household energy bills soaring as gas prices soared.
The government stepped in late last year to cap bills at £2,500 a year for a typical household. But despite falling gas prices, energy bills remain high.
A typical property will pay £2,074 a year for gas and electricity from July, much more than in winter 2021, when bills were around £1,277.
The demand flexibility service offered people the chance to be paid to use less electricity during peak hours when grid capacity was limited, but only homes with smart meters could participate.
Just 14 million households in England, Scotland and Wales, where the scheme was offered, have a smart meter installed.
National Grid said 1.6 million households and businesses who were customers of 31 energy suppliers participated in the scheme in 22 “events” last winter.
People were asked to avoid high-powered activities such as cooking or using washing machines for an hour.
It says the amount of energy saved is enough to power almost 10 million homes, but it is not yet known how much money each household earns on average.
Individual providers decide how much customers receive and whether money is debited from accounts, credited to accounts or can be withdrawn as cash.
National Grid said consumers in the south, east and east central of England had their demand cut the most.
The operator is consulting with energy suppliers to improve the service before winter.