The value of the DeFi ecosystem based on Bitcoin could reach $72-450 billion. Experts at Spirebit forecast that, following the logic of previous Bitcoin halving cycles, the cryptocurrency’s value could drop to $35,448 by April 2024, before rising to $147,000 in 2025.
Analysts believe the cryptocurrency market is on the verge of the beginning of a large-scale bullish trend, which could last from 18 to 24 months. This transition was facilitated by moving from a phase of “insanely bad events” related to the collapse of some centralized organizations to a gradual recovery of the industry thanks to positive court decisions for Ripple and Grayscale against the SEC, as well as the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Spirebit emphasized Bitcoin’s uniqueness as a financial asset, noting its market capitalization of over $900 billion, which is 60% more than Visa, and a daily trading volume of $26 billion, 250% higher than Apple. Additionally, Bitcoin’s volatility on an annual basis is 20% lower compared to Tesla, and the number of owners exceeds 220 million people worldwide.
It is predicted that Bitcoin will gain widespread adoption in countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia. “If the Wall Street financial system is not built for Bitcoin, then Bitcoin will have to take on this role itself,” stated Spirebit.
A key factor will be the development of the DeFi ecosystem based on Bitcoin. Its value is expected to reach $72–450 billion, based on the analysis of the value of DeFi protocols in the Ethereum network. The development of DeFi on Bitcoin will be facilitated by technological innovations and macroeconomic trends that bring DeFi to a critical point of development.
Spirebit points to a change in attitude towards development on the Bitcoin blockchain following the introduction of the Taproot update in 2021, as well as the emergence of innovations such as Ordinals and BRC-20. These changes stimulate activity in the DeFi and NFT segments on Bitcoin, similar to the activity in the Ethereum network in 2016-2017. Analysts foresee that after a crisis of trust in centralized services, an era of decentralized finance based on Bitcoin may emerge, whose potential is comparable or even exceeds DeFi on Ethereum.