Rishi Sunak is wrong to believe that his promise to solve the small boat crisis can win back former Conservative voters, says polling guru Professor John Curtice.
Professor Curtice says the Conservatives were wrong to focus so heavily on the issue of Channel migrants because it reminds people of Brexit’s “dramatic failure” to control immigration.
“The remarkable thing about focusing on ships is: ‘Let’s take one of the clearest, most dramatic apparent failures to deliver in the Brexit campaign and make that what we want the public to focus on,’” Curtice said on Wednesday. .
The elections expert said small boats are “clearly not the way back to persuade people who have defected from the Conservatives to return to them.”
Stressing the importance of the economy to 2019 Conservative voters, Professor Curtice said: “What they have to be able to do is persuade people that the economy in general, and Brexit in particular, is actually doing well as result of conservative management. .”
He added: “That’s the fundamental problem for conservatives: By going after immigration, they’re going after the wrong target.”
Luke Tryl, UK director of group More in Common, said the small boat issue lagged behind the cost of living and the NHS even on red wall voters’ list of priorities, with widespread pessimism about Sunak’s promise to cut the crossings.
“The public is incredibly cynical that this is all going to work,” he said of the focus group his organization is running. “There is a feeling that the Tories promise and promise, but they haven’t delivered.”
A senior Tory MP said Sunak accused the prime minister of “overpromising and underdelivering” after he made a “massive statement” promising to stop the ships.
said the deputy the independent They feared the numbers would rise over the summer, leading to further frustration with the Conservatives after Sunak claimed this week that his plan was “working”.
A YouGov poll in April found that around 63 percent thought Sunak was unlikely to be able to stop the ships. A BMG poll this week found that 79 per cent of voters believe Brexit has had a negative impact on migration levels (44 per cent) or made no difference at all (35 per cent).
Suella Braverman and Rishi Sunak are ‘wrong’ to focus on Canal migrants
(Simon Walker/No. 10 Downing Street)
Professor Curtice said support for the Tories among Leave 2016 voters had “dropped off dramatically” while Labor had seen a “dramatic rise” in support among Leave voters backing Brexit.
However, he said it was unclear whether it was because Labor was “keeping quiet” on Brexit or the general decline in support for Brexit due to the negative impact of Britain’s departure from the EU on the economy.
Professor Curtice spoke about the current importance of Brexit among voters at a Best for Britain press conference.
The internationalist campaign group has revealed the results of a new mega-poll putting Labor on course for a landslide majority of 140 in the general election. Post-stratification multilevel regression (MRP) analysis of recent Focaldata polls showed that Labor is on track to win 470 seats.
Keir Starmer is on track for most of the 140, according to the latest polls
(PENNSYLVANIA)
However, under a “worst case” model (where swing voters go Tory and Reform UK walks out on fringe seats), Labor wins just 316 seats and the Tories win 286.
The result would leave Labor without a majority and forced to seek coalition deals with others in a majorityless parliament.
Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, warned that the election was still “up for grabs” and encouraged more tactical voting. “There is not necessarily going to be a change of government.”
Carol Vorderman, who has become a fierce critic of the government, said tactical anti-Tory voting could be a “big factor in the upcoming election”, saying voters were becoming “more sophisticated” in switching between parties. progressives.
The TV host and activist said voters should ask themselves: “Do they want this shameful government or not?”
Tryl said there was “potential for a fairly large Labor majority” but said support for Sir Keir Starmer’s party was still “quite weak”, arguing that the opposition was “winning by default” due to the unpopularity of the Conservatives.
The More in Common editor said his group’s recent focus groups suggested Sunak was struggling to win over red wall voters who worry about his wealth and wonder if he can “identify” with his financial woes. But he said the word that best describes voters’ attitude towards Sir Keir Starmer is “meh”, adding: “His voice irritates people.”
Asked about voter attitudes towards Sunak’s possible successors should the Tories lose the next election, Tryl said Penny Mordaunt and Kemi Badenoch had been the most popular candidates in the Tory leadership election on last summer.
He warned against the idea of Home Secretary Suella Braverman as a potential Conservative leader. Tryl said that she would be “the longest suicide note Conservative Party candidate in history, simply because she is so polarising”.