Voters headed to polling stations in three English by-elections on Thursday as opposition figures urged them to “send a message” to the ruling Conservative party by inflicting humiliating defeats.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is bracing for landslide results, expected to be announced from 3am on Friday, but used an end-of-term speech to rally Conservative MPs to rally behind him for an autumn counterattack.
Sunak addressed the 1922 committee of Conservative MPs on Wednesday evening, before the weary MPs left Westminster for their six-week summer recess.
By-elections will take place in three constituencies: Uxbridge and South Ruislip in West London, Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, and Somerton and Frome in Somerset.
Conservative MP Jonathan Gullis told reporters waiting outside the 1922 meeting: “Rishi said what we already know: it will be a tough battle. Nobody likes by-elections. The circumstances of these by-elections are not necessarily ideal.”
However, Gullis added that Sunak had tried to boost morale by calling on the party to regroup in September: “He was asking all of us to rally behind him when we come back in the autumn. We need to be one team. A united party wins, a divided party loses.
Most Tory MPs and bookmakers are convinced the party will suffer a by-election defeat in all three seats, which have been vacated by the Tories.
Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson sensationally resigned in Uxbridge last month after learning the privileges committee had concluded he lied to MPs about the so-called partygate scandal, while his ally Nigel Adams resigned as MP for Selby after he failed to receive a peerage on Johnson’s resignation list.
Meanwhile, suspended Conservative MP David Warburton has resigned from Somerton following an allegation of cocaine use, which he accepted, and allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denied. Warburton said he was resigning because he believed the parliamentary watchdog had denied him a fair hearing.
The Liberal Democrats are expected to overturn the Conservatives’ 19,210 majority in Somerton, while Labor is poised to sweep Selby, where the Conservatives held a 20,135 majority.
Uxbridge, where the Conservatives had a majority of 7,210 in the last election, is also expected to fall to Labour, although widespread anger over the Labor mayor of London’s expansion of a low-emissions zone in the constituency from next month is seen as a wild card.
The Labor leader’s spokesman, Sir Keir Starmer, downplayed the opposition party’s chances, noting that the seat remained in Conservative hands even in Labour’s landslide victory in 1997, while Selby would require the party’s best partial result since World War II.
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey urged voters in Somerton on Thursday to “send a clear message to the Conservatives that they have failed our country on the NHS, the cost of living crisis and protecting our rural communities.”
His party’s victory would show that local voters are “fed up with being taken for granted by Sunak and his government,” Davey added.
Rumors of an impending cabinet reshuffle reached a fever pitch in Westminster this week as Conservative MPs speculated that Sunak may want to reinstate his administration before autumn if he suffers disastrous results in a by-election.
The prime minister will surely appoint a new defense secretary, after incumbent Ben Wallace announced his intention to leave the cabinet last weekend.
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly issued a veiled warning to Sunak not to demote him from his so-called big state post at the Defense Ministry, telling the Aspen Security Forum on Wednesday: “I’m looking forward to staying.”
He joked that “you’ll see nail marks on the parquet floor in my office if someone tries to pull me out.”